An Interview with Strategic Planning Expert Gregory Nielsen
When nonprofit organizations sit down to plan for the future, they’re often focused on a stable path forward: set a goal, map the steps to get there, and measure progress along the way. But what happens when the future isn’t stable—when funding is uncertain, policies shift, or unforeseen challenges throw those well-laid plans into question?
That’s where scenario planning comes in.
We sat down with Gregory Nielsen, a nationally recognized strategic planning consultant, to talk about why scenario planning is a critical complement to traditional strategy, especially in today’s ever-changing nonprofit landscape.
What Is Scenario Planning?
“Scenario planning,” Nielsen explains, “is a simple way of imagining different versions of what could happen in the future.” Rather than replacing strategic planning, it enhances it. Where traditional planning assumes a relatively steady environment, scenario planning accepts that we often don’t know exactly what the future holds—and plans accordingly.
For example, your strategic plan might set a goal to recruit 100 new volunteers over three years. With scenario planning, you ask: What if volunteer interest drops? What if it spikes? What if we lose a key partner that helps us recruit? The goal stays the same, but the way you achieve it may vary depending on which version of the future unfolds.
How Many Scenarios Should You Plan For?
As with strategic goals, more is not always better.
“If we allow ourselves to,” Nielsen says, “we could imagine 10, 15, even 20 different scenarios—but that’s not helpful. It doesn’t give us clarity.” Instead, he recommends identifying two to three core scenarios that cover a range of outcomes—often categorized as best case, middle/predicted case, and worst case.
Take the example of launching a new program. The best case might include full funding and immediate staff availability. The middle case might involve a delayed rollout. The worst case? Funding falls through. Planning for all three ensures your team knows how to respond no matter what comes.
A More Adaptive, Less Reactive Approach
Scenario planning also complements what many nonprofit leaders strive for: an adaptive management style. As Nielsen puts it, “It builds resilience into your organization.”
Rather than leaving staff and board members feeling blindsided by crisis or overly euphoric during unexpected success, scenario planning normalizes change. “They’re more prepared. They’re part of an organization that’s thought through different futures.”
The Tools of the Trade: A Simple 4-Step Framework
Nielsen offers a simple, repeatable approach to scenario planning:
- Identify Key Drivers
What external or internal forces have the most influence on your success? Common examples include funding levels, policy shifts, staff availability, or program enrollment. - Outline 2–3 Key Scenarios
For each program or initiative, identify a few likely scenarios—using the best/middle/worst case framework, or a custom set that fits your context. - Analyze Impacts and Responses
For each scenario, ask: What would we need to stop, start, or adjust? What’s most at risk? How would we communicate with stakeholders? Nielsen emphasizes that communication planning is often overlooked but crucial. - Identify Common Threads
Often, you’ll discover actions that are smart no matter which scenario unfolds—such as diversifying revenue streams or investing in stronger internal systems. Those common threads? “Start them now,” Nielsen advises. “Don’t wait.”
Facing Crisis Without a Plan?
If your organization is already in the middle of a crisis—say, a major funding source has dried up—Nielsen’s advice is reassuring: It’s not too late.
“The window of time may be compressed,” he says, “but scenario planning is still essential.” Instead of planning over 12–18 months, you plan for the next 30, 60, or 90 days. Even in a state of urgency, asking what now, what if, and what next builds clarity and reduces panic.
He also urges nonprofits not to overlook advocacy. “Some organizations are scared to engage in advocacy, but in a funding crisis, you are compelled to defend your mission. Advocacy is a tool you must use.”
Strategic Planning Is Still Worth It
Many nonprofits hesitate to do strategic planning in times of instability. Nielsen strongly pushes back on that mindset.
“The crisis may not clear up for three or four years,” he says. “Strategic planning should be a living, breathing, adaptive document. It helps us align board meetings, staff performance, and resource decisions. That kind of alignment is a form of scenario planning in itself.”
He recommends simple traffic light indicators to bring plans to life:
- Green: Goal on track
- Yellow: Facing some challenges
- Red: Major roadblock—time to adapt
Beyond the Plan: Building Culture and Capacity
Perhaps the most powerful benefit of scenario planning is cultural. It encourages creativity, reduces anxiety, and aligns teams.
“Nonprofit staff already live under a lot of stress,” Nielsen says. “If we can reduce the number of unknowns they face—if they know we’ve talked about what happens if things go wrong—they feel more empowered.”
And ultimately, that empowerment is what scenario planning is all about.
“You may not like how you have to respond in certain scenarios—but at least you’ve reduced the unknowns. You’ve prepared. And that preparation can be the difference between surviving and thriving.”
—Gregory NielsenIf you’ve had experience with scenario planning, drop a comment below! Questions? Contact us.
